Decision-making (information is critical)

My last article was about the things a business should consider when gathering information.

I believe that the first port of call when gathering information is the media. I say this because the while I base my decisions on facts, all journalists are looking for a story to sell papers, magazines etc. Therefore, they are researching information to get the story that will sell their publication.

Whether the information written is factual or entirely accurate (not providing all the facts or a complete conversation) this not critical. Because our job as information gathers for decision-making relies upon our ability to also research similar articles, both for and against. Think back to our high school debating where each side had to argue for and against, in that role we had to counter opposing sides argument. This is the same with information gathering, read articles where there is opposing arguments and based on your critical analytical capability filter and assess information based on this information (have an open mind).

This then comes back to my focus this week on decision-making and information – the USA debt level and access to supply. Last week the US government again pulled back from a cliff with funding government services, and approved supply with certain constraints.

There are two concerns for me in this action, firstly the issues of ongoing government operations continuously having to go through this uncertainty, and the impact on funding constraint such as the reduction for financial support for Ukraine.

The money concern is more important, because US debt is 100% of GDP (an increase from about 50% about 20 years ago) this debt is approximately $2 trillion (US). Think of the interest on this debt?

We know from previous examples where Govt debt get exceedingly high in democratic countries things go pear shaped (think Greece, Portugal) and the impact it had upon their societies.

From our perspective, what will a serious decline in the US economy do to ours.

Think in terms of consumer buying power. Up until this quarter, annual global retail spend is approximately 26.6 trillion dollars. US retail equates for 28.57% of that spend. Our economic wealth is generated by selling commodities to other countries to convert to consumer goods, thinks cars, televisions, clothes etc. If countries such as India, China do not have a market for their manufactured goods (think post global financial crisis when the decline in consumption in USA and Europe triggered a decline in our resource sector and the impact it had on our economy). A collapse in the US economy caused by this debt level is possible and it will be even more catastrophic for the Australian economy.

The other consideration is the weakening of global security as a result of this decline. If that happens, two authoritarian regimes that have territorial ambitions will be less inclined to listen to the world of reason and not move on their ambitions. Consider that between Tiawan and South Korea produce between them 75% of all semi-conductors and Tiawan manufactures about 90% of the most advanced semi-conductors, think of the impact disruption to global manufacturing if these suppliers are removed from the market. Considering that both these countries rely upon USA to at least provide a bulwark against outright aggression, and if this bulwark declines what will be the result of the world economy that relies upon semi-conductors for most of our personal and business life.

Why do I feel this is about decision-making, my question is :- “what are you and your business decision-makers doing about reducing the risk associated with the probability of this occurring”

This article is about information gathering and the analysis behind each decision. We need as part of our planning a strategy to gather information, analyse with an open mind and make decisions that reduce risks associated with potential external catastrophise such as identified above.

I will expand on this topic in my next article as I believe that our governments have lost the plot and are looking at policies and strategies that do not improve our economic and environment wellbeing, but meeting the agenda of a small but vocal % of our population.

Let me know if you want to have a discussion at john@ctocsolutions.com.au

Have a good week?